Forecast International has issued a new study, "The Market for Business Jet Aircraft," in which the Connecticut-based market research firm predicts that 10,907 business jets will be produced between 2011 and 2020. The value of this production is estimated at $230.3 billion in constant 2011 US dollars.
According to Forecast International Senior Aerospace Analyst Raymond Jaworowski, "Business jet production in 2012 will show some minor improvement over 2011, but more substantial growth in build rates will have to wait until 2013." Production is forecast to total 728 units in 2012, signaling the start of a gradual, though potentially long-lasting, market recovery. The anticipated recovery is expected to be quite measured in its pace, with the 2008 production total of 1,313 business jets not expected to be reached until the year 2018.
According to Forecast International, the worst of the industry downturn is over, but much of the business jet market remains sluggish, especially the light and medium jet segments of the market. Demand is considerably stronger at the top end of the market, in the large-cabin and long-range sectors. This tale of two markets will not continue indefinitely, however.
In the meantime, other indices look promising, as business aircraft utilisation is up and the market for used business jets has stabilised. Economic growth has returned, though it remains weak in key regions such as the US and Europe. Corporate profits, a key leading indicator of future business jet demand, are strong.
Forecast International's market forecast indicates that the top three business jet manufacturers in unit production during the 2011-2020 timeframe will be Cessna, Embraer, and Bombardier. When the market is measured in monetary value of production, the top three companies are projected to be Gulfstream, Bombardier, and Dassault.