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Approaching Crunch Time for 2012 delivery outlook

Approaching Crunch Time for 2012 delivery outlook

According to J.P.Morgan's Aerospace and Defense briefing, the next few months should go a long way toward determining next year’s build rates. Deliveries ex VLJs are coming in flattish this year at 549, 47% below the 2008 peak, forecasting a 20% increase off the bottom in 2012, but this will require a pickup in demand that has been slow in coming and confined to the larger segment of the market. Order activity for the remainder of the year, particularly Q4, will therefore be critical for determining whether next year’s deliveries will meet estimates. In terms of data points that will help gauge demand, little is expected in the very near term, though October/early November will bring the NBAA annual meeting and Q3 earnings from GD, TXT, and ERJ. Meanwhile, the challenging US macro outlook could put off a recovery for small and mid-size jets. International customers, including those from China, have been the main drivers of relatively robust demand for larger jets, so good relative performance in emerging market economies could therefore support continued strength in this market segment. Used market trends flipped in August Last month saw higher prices and higher inventories, the opposite of what was observed for most of the year. The main potentially positive takeaway is the increase in Light and Medium jet prices, looking to used pricing as an indicator of a potential inflection point for new demand. However, prices have ticked up briefly in the past, so another couple of months will be necessary to determine whether this is sustainable. The lack of a price increase for Heavy jets is not a major concern, as this segment is already recovering. Used inventory increased by 20 bps Used inventory of in-production models reached 10.5% in August. All three categories—Heavy (+0.3%), Medium (+0.1%), and Light (+0.2%)—were up from July and 15 out of 24 models that were tracked had higher inventories. Inventories increased for Embraer (+2.0%), Hawker Beechcraft (+0.5%), Gulfstream (+0.5%), and Dassault (+0.1%), while inventories for Cessna (-0.1%) declined and for Bombardier remained flat. Avg. asking price increased 0.2% Avg. price increased to $10.64 mn in August, and is down 6.4% y/y. Heavy jet prices decreased 0.3%, while Medium and Light jet prices increased 1.1% and 1.6%, respectively. Prices for 12 of the 24 models that were tracked increased, 9 saw decreases, and 3 remained flat. Flight ops up 1.2% y/y in July and up 5.4% y/y YTD Seasonally adjusted flight ops are now up 19% from the 2009 low but remain 22% below the 2007 peak. Light Jet Deliveries down 12% y/y 2Q11 Light jet deliveries decreased 12% from 32 in 2Q10 to 28 in 2Q11, 2 fewer than the prior quarter. Q2 deliveries were 35% of the 79 on average for the 5 Q2s between 2005 and 2010. Bombardier delivered 2 Learjet 40s and 1 Learjet 45s compared to 4 Learjet 40s and 4 Learjet 45s in 2Q10, while Hawker Beechcraft delivered 1 more Premier I to reach 3 jets but no Hawker 400XP deliveries compared to 1 last year. Cessna delivered 22 jets, including 8 CJ4, 7 Cit. XLS+, 4 CJ3, 2 CJ2+, and 1 CJ1+. Cessna completed the first year of CJ4’s entry into the market in 2Q10, and had 5 more CJ4 deliveries compared to last year. On a TTM basis by volume, Cessna gained 330 bps at the expense of Bombardier and Hawker Beechcraft, which lost 310 bps and 20 bps of market share, respectively. Similarly, by value, Cessna gained 780 bps, while Bombardier and Hawker Beechcraft lost 490 bps and 290 bps, respectively.

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