Two business aviation consultants believe that the industry is set for recovery this year, rather than in 2012 as many analysts predicted during the latter part of 2010.
Consultant Rolland Vincent points to increasing corporate profits and flight activity and the fact that general aviation aircraft delivery billings in the first nine months of last year were the fourth highest on record as signs that things are indeed getting better. “It has been and continues to be a challenging time for many, but the darkest days of this current downturn appear to be in the past,” he said.
Another consultant, Brian Foley, speculates that while business conditions will improve throughout the year, this recovery won’t result in increased deliveries until later this year or early next year, since deliveries lag sales by about 12 months. “Through 2015 we’re estimating an average yearly growth rate of 8 percent for jet deliveries,” Foley said. “But because the light and midsize segments were by far the most battered, they’ll actually be the growth leaders, averaging 15- to 20-percent compound annual growth over the next five years.”