The rising inventory of used business jets "portends a major deterioration in the new aircraft market quite soon," a JPMorgan market analysis warned last week.
"Let there be no doubt the used market is rapidly falling apart, which should lead to a deteriorating market for new aircraft in short order," the Sept. 4 report said, adding that "used aircraft inventories were up 80 basis points (bps) to 9.4 percent, bringing inventories to the highest level since September 2003 and representing the seventh monthly increase in a row."
Inventories of used aircraft for sale "are up 52 percent from 6.2 percent in January," with all three business jet categories (heavy, medium and light) showing increases. The JPMorgan analysts said 19 of 23 tracked models had higher inventories, including Gulfstream, which jumped 140 bps in August after declining 20 bps in July.
Besides growing business jet inventories, average asking prices for used aircraft declined 2.3 percent year over year, and "flight operations into and out of the U.S. (takeoffs and landings) declined 10.6 percent in July, the ninth consecutive decline and third consecutive double-digit decline. YTD, operations are down 6.6 percent."
Read the full version of this article at Aviation Week
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