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Four reasons why there's economic optimism in Russia

Four reasons why there's economic optimism in Russia

Four reasons why there's economic optimism in Russia
FlyCorporate sits down with Alfa-Bank Chief Economic Analyst Natalia Orlova to talk about the current political environment in Russia. Orlova offers four reasons why optimism should prevail. "Considering the current political environment, on top of an already depressed economy, it’s easy to see why many consider the forecast for business aviation in Russia to be ‘gloomy’. To counter this ‘doom and gloom’ forecast, I’d like to present the case for economic optimism in Russia. First, there’s the budget policy. In 2007, funding for social expenditures amounted to 40% of the total budget. In 2013 this share has grown to 60%. In other words, the government is now promoting a budget that assumes greater social commitment – and this is a trend that I predict to continue. At the same time Russia has witnessed a significant decrease in birthrates. For example, in 1989 there were 44 million young people. In 2012 this number dropped to 13 million. As a result, Russia’s current unemployment rate is remarkably low – below 5%. Another positive factor to consider is Russia’s growing consumer culture. We tend to lack a savings culture, with Russians preferring to consume as much as possible. In fact, on average, Russians only save about 10% of their income. This point is of particular interest to business aviation. As part of this consumer culture, Russians tend to spend more on entertainment, which includes traveling and, in some cases, business aviation. More importantly, Russians tend to have the money to spend as, all-in-all, the population here is not over-loaned. Now for the bad news. What is good for buyers is not always good for the manufacturers, who must raise salaries and invest in production improvements in order to remain competitive. And it is this clash between the population’s desire to consume and the company’s inability to keep up that has led to the low growth rate of Russia’s economy. Unfortunately, this is a trend that will likely continue for the next five years, where economic growth is not expected to exceed 2%. To counterbalance this, the government is providing support via economic resources, and the Central Bank is increasing interest rates. However, inflation is likely to reach the double digits by mid-2015 – although this is primarily tied to the restriction on imports mandated by international sanctions that are causing prices to increase by up to 1.5%."

Поделиться: http://www.fly-corporate.com/article/finance-insurance-tax/jetexpo2014/four-reasons-why-theres-economic-optimism-russia Margarita Maximovskaya

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